Michiel Nijdam is Head of Strategy at the Port of Rotterdam Authority. In this role, he is responsible for developing and implementing strategic plans for the port. He focuses on promoting sustainable growth and improving the efficiency and reliability of the logistics and industry in the port.  

We cannot predict how this will unfold, and Trump may have even already taken the first drastic measures by the time you read this column. We do know, however, that the inventiveness and flexibility of the business community, government and Port Authority is needed to guide Europe and Rotterdam through these unchartered waters. A focus on excellent logistics and facilitating investment in innovating the industry is needed in any case. 

For the port of Rotterdam, flexibility and a strategic vision remain vital to navigate these complex geopolitical waters, in which trade is increasingly being used as a political tool. 

Furthermore, Trump will probably partly rollback the IRA (American incentive for industry), considering it is a measure introduced by Biden, is very expensive and encourages ‘green’ industry above all. That reduces any potential unfair competition from the US, for example in the production of batteries and electrolysers. It does make EU investment in these technologies relatively more appealing than it currently is. This offers opportunities for the Netherlands and the rest of Europe to get a head start in these and other new markets. 

Trump’s previous position on the climate and environmental rules suggests a rollback of international agreements (Paris 2015). At the same time, European rules are becoming stricter, creating an increasingly distorted playing field between industries on both continents. In Europe, there will be fewer investments in energy-intensive industry that produces for the global market as a result of these distorted relations. There may also be consequences for the Rotterdam chemical cluster.  

The expectation is that as a significant economic power, the EU will continue balancing between the US and China. For Rotterdam, this means that the port can profit from the increasing trade volumes with China but also run risks by having to make choices based on political pressure. It will also force European countries to diversify their trade relations, which offers opportunities for Rotterdam to develop more relations with countries in Asia, South America and Africa. 

Trump has also gained new possibilities to force Europe to side with America in the power play with China. The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused massive shifts in energy supplies in Europe. Europe does not currently buy any cheap gas from Russia by pipeline, so the United States is now Europe’s largest supplier of (much more expensive) LNG. The US supplies 50% of all LNG, which is 17% of total EU gas demand. This new dependence gives Trump additional leverage to pressure Europe into following his line with China.  

An additional effect for Europe is that the export China can not sell in the US will be targeted at the other solvent market in the world: Europe. That means more consumer products (including cars) and basic products (steel, plastics) from China to Europe at a lower price. It will dampen inflation in Europe and increase the number of containers in the Rotterdam port, but will worsen the situation for industry. 

The trade war that Trump seems to want to wage with China in particular would lead to a decline in the entire world economy and trade. The threat of 60% import tariffs is already causing companies to redirect to other production locations. 

Trump’s protectionist course during his first term, with his key concept of ‘America First’, caused turmoil. Tariffs on steel, aluminium, food and vehicles hit European exports. Trump in 2025 leads to an intensification of that protectionist approach. New trade barriers, playing out the balance of power and regular conflicts are probably on the menu. 

The return of Trump in 2025 promises new shifts in international trade, with direct consequences for the port of Rotterdam. Tariffs and protectionism could again cause disruptions, while geopolitical tensions among the US, China and the EU present new challenges.